NASA Nearly Bet It All on Boeing’s Troubled Starliner—Here’s Why That Changed

It’s hard to imagine a more stressful version of the Boeing Starliner saga, but an insider’s look into a fateful meeting that took place 10 years ago reveals that things could have been much worse.

NASA was reportedly considering going all in on Boeing, selecting the company’s Starliner as the only commercial spacecraft used to transport its astronauts to and from the International Space Station (ISS), according to an excerpt from the book Reentry: SpaceX, Elon Musk and the Reusable Rockets that Launched a Second Space Age by Ars Technica’s Eric Berger.

In 2014, NASA awarded Boeing and SpaceX contracts as part of the space agency’s Commercial Crew Program to develop spacecraft capable of carrying crew and cargo to the ISS. SpaceX excelled in its assignment; since November 2020, the company has transported eight crews to the orbiting space station. Meanwhile, while its counterpart had a disastrous first go at launching two NASA astronauts; on September 6, Boeing’s Starliner undocked from the ISS and returned to Earth, leaving its crew stranded due to multiple issues that deemed the spacecraft unfit to carry the astronauts back home.

Starliner launched to the ISS on June 5, carrying NASA astronauts Butch Wilmore and Sunni Williams. The spacecraft remained docked to the space station for three months as teams on the ground debated whether or not to return the crew on board the troubled spacecraft. During its ride to the ISS, five of the spacecraft’s thrusters failed and the spacecraft developed five helium leaks, one of which was identified prior to liftoff. Mission teams ran tests on the ground to try and identify the main issue behind the thruster glitch before ultimately deciding to return an uncrewed Starliner and bring back its crew on board SpaceX’s Dragon spacecraft.

Considering how things turned out, choosing Boeing as its sole commercial partner would’ve been an incredibly bad move by NASA. At the time, however, Boeing was the more reliable choice while the Elon Musk-led SpaceX was a flashy newcomer that hadn’t had a chance to prove itself yet. Officials at NASA leaned more towards Boeing, and almost allocated the space agency’s entire Commercial Crew budget to the company while leaving SpaceX out.

In Berger’s book, sources recount that, during a meeting of spaceflight advisors and senior NASA officials, the majority of people picked Boeing over SpaceX. NASA had also decided to grant a contract to one company rather than choosing two companies due to its tight budget.

“We really did not have the budget for two companies at the time,” Phil McAlister, NASA’s head of the Commercial Crew program, told Berger. “No one thought we were going to award two. I would always say, ‘One or more,’ and people would roll their eyes at me.”

An evaluation board scored the companies based on price, mission suitability, and past performance. SpaceX had a lower bid of $2.6 billion while Boeing asked for $4.2 billion. When it came to the other two categories, Boeing had SpaceX beat. Ironically, Boeing received an “excellent” rating for mission suitability, meaning its assessed ability to safely fly crew to and from the ISS, while SpaceX received a “very good” rating. Boeing also scored a “very high” rating based on past performance, while SpaceX received a rating of “high.”

In the end, Boeing’s refusal to perform an in-flight test of Starliner’s abort system—thrusters designed to propel the vehicle away if the rocket malfunctions during launch—became a critical factor. Boeing was only willing to conduct a test of the abort system on the ground, which prompted NASA’s head of safety and mission assurance to deem the company’s bid as unsatisfactory. Also, SpaceX’s bid had a lower asking price, making it possible for NASA to consider picking two companies instead of one.

The decision was so close that NASA had to rewrite its Commercial Crew contract to include both companies after having already drafted one that solely appointed Boeing, according to Berger.

NASA’s retirement of the Space Shuttle prompted the need for a new spaceship for its ISS astronauts. The space agency sought to wean itself off dependence on Russia’s Soyuz for crew transport and invested heavily in developing partnerships with private aerospace companies. It’s hard to picture how things may have turned out if NASA had only chosen Boeing’s Starliner to transport its astronauts to Earth orbit. Actually, we can—and it’s a total nightmare.

SpaceX’s Dragon crew capsule allowed NASA to stop relying on its strained Russian partnership, and granted the space agency access to the ISS at a much lower cost. Boeing, on the other hand, has fallen behind, losing the initial credibility granted to it by its legacy name in the industry. The ongoing tale of the two companies illustrates the growing pains of the spaceflight industry, and the need to keep up with its increasing demands. If it had only invested in Boeing as a safe choice rather than opting to create competition in the industry, NASA would have been much worse off today.

More: Boeing Would Like Everybody to Please Stop Saying the Starliner ISS Test Is a Bust